WP3: GLOF hazard assessment

Using remote-sensing (WP1a), geomorphological mapping (WP1b) and fieldwork (WP1c), we will identify sites of past GLOF sites around the major glaciers of Peru. We will use these sites to identify probable physical triggers of the identified GLOFs in order to better understand the processes that impact on glacial lake systems. Using this information we will enhance existing methods of hazard assessment (e.g. Reynolds, 2014) and identify sites at which glacial hazards are assessed as ‘severe’ or ‘very severe’. We will use these observations to establish the physical processes that govern GLOF behaviour in Peru including sites that may be prone to moraine-dam failure, the locations of sites likely to be sensitive to ice-dammed lake drainage and sites that are sensitive to rockslide and debris flow activity. We will analyse flood hydrographs (where available) of selected former GLOFs and use these to establish the patterns of downstream impacts. We will objectively assess the potential for damage to communities and infrastructure downstream. In tandem, we will also develop a numerical model based on the CORDEX simulations outlined in WP2 and conduct numerical simulations of downstream impacts for selected potential GLOF sites using these physically based numerical flood models. We will identify current and likely future glacier hazards focusing on the developing landslide and debris flow risk as glaciers recede; establish the locations of potential future vulnerable lakes and potential GLOF sites.